Whyos

GigaOM has a piece up today positing the impossibility of a massively-multiplayer game that can “kill” World of Warcraft. Instead, it suggests that smaller MMO titles, with other revenue models, will nibble away at WoW’s market share. It’s certainly true, and has been for some time, that niche competitors have been the primary ongoing competitors to the big guys, first to Everquest, then WoW. And, it’s more true now than ever that alternate payment models, like that of MapleStory, are attractive and drive a significant audience.

But, it also continues to be the case that interactive entertainment is a story of the ongoing compromise between on one hand minimizing the burdens of the cost of development for a rich experience, and on the other the potential for monetization of any content. So, while MapleStory is a highly successful business, it’s not strong enough material to monetize at the level of WoW, and there will continue to be a demand for richer quality entertainment, although probably not for more than one of these rich MMOs at any given time.

As I’ve said before, assuming that one can easily build a hugely successful subscription MMO is an ugly illusion, unfortunately much indulged in during the past few years. WoW is built on successfully extending gameplay over the years and an extensive and well-developed social network, including incredibly sophisticated guild relationships. It may be the case that WoW is so good and its infrastructure so comprehensive that no one can compete against it, but that quality will be its bulwark, rather than the changes in market conditions. However, the social nature of the MMO is uniquely well-suited to enabling a leader-killing scenario. WoW sucked the life out of Everquest with a specific and reproducible model:

• Better gameplay for the opinion leaders who cared about that sort of thing. -And sublime guild support to keep them.
• Easier entry for novices.
• Better graphics, which, despite what some of my ludologically purist friends may say, is a significant driver of both groups.

-All led folks to try the new game, and, once there:

• They invited friends from Everquest and RL, because the game is inherently social.
• The game had enough momentum in user growth that it was hard for players to justify remaining at Everquest, because very few individuals will pay subscription fees for more than one MMO.

There are currently some interesting development projects out there, and one of them might be able to pull this off as well. The GigaOM piece mentions Bobby Kotick’s statement about a new WoW costing a billion dollars to create, and that being an insurmountable obstacle to competition. This is a convenient positioning from the man who merged with Vivendi to get WoW. However, that figure certainly reflects the aggregated cost of development of the game, all incremental content (BC, LK, etc.) and a few other things, that really would be investments over time. The two elements that have made investors probably over-interested in MMOs are ongoing revenue and the fact that it so clearly provides a structure under which an initial launch reception can indicate whether additional development costs are justified. -The latter of which negates Kotick’s stated issue.

While it is a bit of a fool’s errand to go up against WoW, that’s just the sort of effort that makes the world interesting, and I’d hate to see anyone blocked from giving it a shot by erroneous assumptions. -Because it is possible for something to be good enough to kill it, and there’s nothing but quality of execution keeping that from happening.